Thursday, 6 June 2013

Coldest Summer forecast 'an exaggeration'

As Coldest Summer appeared
in Spanish press
EUROPE Recent forecasts by Mèteo for the coldest summer in living memory, with the lowest ever temperatures and unusual rain (at least in Spain), are "an exaggeration", according to the spokesperson for Spain's Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET, State Meteorological Agency), Alejandro Lomas, who also said at a press conference on Friday that the only really reliable forecasts do not go beyond 72 hours at most, and further than ten days ahead, the trust factor drops dramatically. His comments have since been supported by a number of weather experts here and in other European countries, including France and Germany.>>>In fact, projections for each season of the year are only in the experimental stage in various countries' weather agencies. Which probably accounts for the fact that they seldom agree on most forecasts.

AEMET released a report that augurs a perfectly 'normal' summer, without what it calls 'climactic incidents' of any significance.

The report for the first fortnight of June, though, does indicate that we will be under lower temperatures than usual, but nothing too extreme.

Another expert, José Miguel Viñas, a physicist and meteorologist, also sees the Mèteo forecast as exaggerated, and agrees that long range forecasting is not only difficult but almost completely lacking in any accuracy. He says that if all, or at least most forecasts had a large degree of coincidence with Méteo's they might carry some weight.

The Mèteo report said that temperatures would be colder as the result of cold currents in the Atlantic, but other predictions pointed to a host of different factors as well.

Cold water was also poured on Mèteo's forecast (sorry, couldn't avoid the pun) by engineer and meteorology expert Emilio Rey. It could be colder or warmer, he said, pointing out that all we can realy do is 'sit and wait'.

Farmers, who are notoriously never happy with what the weather gods bring about, are reportedly in a fritz about it all. Basically, even for them, it is either hot, warm, cool, cold or freezing (the latter not applicable to summer in Southern Spain, where it does often get cold of an evening, anyway) and it's never right for whatever they've planted or bred. They just have to 'sit and wait', like the rest of us.

But then you also have the cabañuelas, an ancient weather forcasting method that many contry people rely on - but that's another article.

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